Identifier
F:rat-binomial-variance
Proof route
kernel-lean
External status
proved
Axiom footprint
Empty

Recorded description

Let X be a family of rational-valued random variables on a finite index range [0, n) with a distribution p, let m be a natural number and q a rational. If the family is pairwise uncorrelated below m and every trial below m has variance q(1-q), then the pointwise sum of the first m trials has variance m*q(1-q). Both extra hypotheses are exactly the ones Rat.variance_sumVars carries and no more. The proof is the same two steps as the mean, over Rat.variance_sumVars instead of Rat.expectation_sumVars. The statement lives at the rationals rather than over AlgS.OrderedRing for a MEASURED reason: the generic variance is the centred form and the generic covariance the computational one, and relating them needs E[fun k => X k * c] ~ E[X]*c, which pulls a constant past the weight p k and therefore needs mulComm -- a field ADR-1592 deliberately withheld. So the generic shelf has no variance_eq, hence no variance_add_of_uncorrelated, hence no variance of a sum. That is a fact about the RECORD, not about the mathematics: the moment AlgS.CommOrderedRing exists this theorem moves up verbatim.

Formal statement
theorem Rat.binomial_variance : forall (X : Nat -> Nat -> Rat) (p : Nat -> Rat) (n : Nat), Rat.IsDistribution p n -> forall (m : Nat) (q : Rat), Rat.PairwiseUncorrelated X m p n -> (forall j, Nat.lt j m -> Eq (Rat.variance (X j) p n) (Rat.mul q (Rat.sub Rat.one q))) -> Eq (Rat.variance (Rat.sumVars X m) p n) (Rat.mul (Rat.natDivSucc m 0) (Rat.mul q (Rat.sub Rat.one q)))

Dependencies

The graph shows direct ledger edges. Follow a node to open its artifact page.

Direct dependencies appear to the left. The current fact is in the center. Facts that depend directly on it appear to the right. The Bernoulli variance is q(1-q [generated] kernel theorem Rat. Multiplication on the rationals One is a right identity for rat Zero absorbs rational multiplic Rational division by a fixed su Rational multiplication distrib Rat.normalize reconstructs a ra Current fact Chebyshev's bound for a sum of
9 direct dependencies 1 direct dependents Graph shows the first 8 on each side.

Evidence

kernel-axiom-free-rat

Kind
kernel-term
Status
checked

Supports: The declaration is admitted by the trusted kernel gate with an empty Kernel::axiom_footprint, together with every other declaration of ADR-1631's rational binomial layer. The test asserts Environment::contains FIRST, because an absent name has an empty footprint too.

Checker command
cargo test --release -p axeyum-lean-kernel --lib rat_prelude::binomial_rat::binomial_rat_tests::binomial_rat_declarations_are_axiom_free -- --exact 2>&1 | grep -c '^test result: ok. 1 passed'
Evidence notes

grep -c, not grep -q: -q would SIGPIPE the producer under pipefail, and -c exits 1 printing 0 when the line is absent, so a suite that compiled to zero tests and exited 0 is caught rather than counted as a pass. --release is mandatory: the rational prelude SIGABRTs on the default debug thread stack.

Provenance

{
  "date": "2026-09-05",
  "established_by": "lane binomial-hoeffding (roadmap W3-12, ADR-1631)"
}